One student of Suffolk politics sees a plan for managing the results of the 2012 elections. It is based on the results of the November elections where popular Mike Duman narrowly edged out Caroline Martin for Council. Her backers were disappointed, especially after raising far more money than the other candidates combined. This was not expected. The money invested in her campaign raised eyebrows and the question, why was that Council position so very important to her supporters? It’s a step into a position of power in Suffolk, that’s why, according to the theory advanced. If you can imagine it, the theory states that the Mayor would be more comfortable as the Council member she was and is part of the group that want Martin as mayor. The theory calculates the voters are ready for change, based on the recent state and federal results. New Councilman Barclay seeks a higher position in Va. Politics and will step down. Linda Johnson would then easily recapture her former Council seat making room for Martin to run. She could win if the voters hadn’t figured out what was going on. The theorist figures Parr, Duman, and Linda Johnson would support Martin and the SCCA crowd would be in power. 
19 comments:
There has been some complaint that IS has forgotten its roots,it's purpose of or to serving the community. That includes those who disagree with IS. This thread is a perfect case in point in demonstrating and exposing that Suffolk politics and and politicians are no different than those in Richmond, Washington or even Chicago are no different.In some cities they are known as pimps and public service providers that have a variance in costs for their services and favors.
There is a commercial that asks. What's in Your Wallet?
This article makes some sense to me, as I have heard similar stories in recent months. However, I doubt that Caroline will run for mayor. It may be that Linda will take her former council seat to let Charles Parr run for mayor. Barclay doesn't
really seem natural with the others on council - he has higher ambitions; I think he will run against Fred Quayle this year.
The mayor and Parr supported Duman in 2010 - there's no way they would support Caoline for mayor.
Johnson, Gardy and Parr were all elivated to power in 2006 when Calvin Jones and Bobby Ralph were defeated. Caroline would more align herself with Calvin and Bobby than they would with Linda, Charles, Jeff and probably Mike. I voted for Joe Barlow in 2006 and voted for Duman in 2010.
It will be interesting to see if the 2012 mayoral field is as crowded as 2008's was.
If Charles becomes mayor, look to see if Tom Powell takes the Suffolk Borough Council seat. He would have to be appointed due to the vacancy - meaning he would need to make nice with the incumbents on there now - or he could run when that seat is up again in 2014.
I doubt Leonard, Wahlstrom, Damiani, or Debranski run for mayor again. Nixon may, Johnson may, and of course, more alternatives could pop up between now and then. I want to know who is testing the waters.
But let's get through 2011 first. Landslide Randy Carter is up for re-election. Having won by less than 100 votes last time (in a crowded field) he is potentially very vulnerable.
And will the three black Council members remain three? Brown made it quite obvious that he had favored FourFarms project when he gave them a thumbs up at the Council meeting suggesting he received a few bucks from them for his part in supporting the project. Surely the committee fighting the plan made note of that.
Interesting prognostication here.
First I believe Fred Quayle will run again. I don't believe Mr. Barclay will take him on at this time.
The 2012 mayor's race is still murky. Linda Johnson may very well run again. I don't count Caroline Martin out at all.
There are elections this year for the House of Delegates, State Senate and Clerk of Court.
It is true that Randy Carter won by more than 100 votes in a field of 7 last time. However, the last 8 years have shown us that we really did need someone with an extensive legal background in that job. I would shudder to think what would have happened if one of those other candidates with no legal experience had managed to win that position.
It is way too important having to keep track of someone's land records, wills and the other 832 legal responsibilities called for in that job to have someone with no legal experience handling that job.
Mr. Carter has modernized that office in a number of different ways that were very much needed. And this was done without sacrificing the most important thing to citizens, and that's customer service.
I voted for him last time and plan to vote for him this time. I'm sure he would welcome any potential challengers to say how they could have done any better than the good job he did. I don't think they can.
The writer for "IS" has been around a long time and should be well known as fair but disgruntled. He did a few years with Damiani on his talk show and before that he wrote an entertaining weekly column for years. I think he started "IS" only to give the people a chance to speak up. I remember that he was not happy that people could address the Council but never get a response from the seven who just sat there like nobody had spoken to them. I understand that what he does costs him time and money so I thank him for giving us a place to say what's on our mind. Who else in the whole darn city has given us an opportunity speak up? None of those who find fault with "IS" offer anything. So once in awhile send him a pat on the back.
The "SCCA Crowd" should be in fear that public sentiment will combine with a pathetic season to cause a reluvtance by the Council to keep funding subsiddies that appear to be greater than the total costs of all the acts being presented.
If Mrs Martin wants to run for major, she will have to disassociate herself from being the top financial officer of the SCCA and show she can relate to the masses and also drop those of her supporters who were so vicious against Mr Duman.
The SCCA needs to seek the support of those very citizens it attacks.
Milteer is up again in 2012 and I don't know what his plans are. He probably doesn't know what his plans are either, until he knows what kind of opposition he could face.
Why would he have given up his position as Vice-Mayor if he was going to run again? He gave it to Brown who was just re-elected by a 3-1 margin. Going in to 2012, with a big election, in a presidential year with many first-time voters is going to be a challenge for him. He lucked out by having a D-list opponent last time.
He should make his plans clear and public by early 2012 so that anyone interested in running has time to weigh his or her options.
I don't know of anyone testing the waters in that side of town, as I live in the Suffolk Borough. But I do know that Milteer has been there for a while and should give someone else a chance.
The only way Milteer leaves office is feet first or one of his family members decides to run. His borough has no one other than a previous opponent with a good head for business and understands what must be done. Also in 2012 Obama will be running again and every registered member of the black community will be there to vote for him just because he's black.
This is a really interesting thread. I agree that there was much more to Mrs. Martin's run against Mr. Duman than we will ever know. As for the race against Milteer, what has happened with Mr. Leonard? He was just about the only real opponent Milteer has ever had and he just seemed to disapear. Someone said he was working for the Federal Government now in Washington, I think. If he got some support behind him he might win against Milteer, but I don't see anyone else coming to the table. As for our lovely Mayor, she will not give up the top place without being pushed out and that is for sure. Parr is a joke and the rest are even worse.
Too bad Martin didn't win the Chuckatuck seat. She would have rocked them instead of them remaining supremely self-confident of their power over the rest of us. Duman's mallable personality doesn't help matters. If Councilman Martin had wanted to run for mayor she would first have to give up her seat and then Duman could have been appointed by the others.
Leonard was shellacked in 2004 against Milteer and faced an even worse beating by the voters in the mayoral race in 2008. I don't think he's active in Suffolk politics anymore.
He is a very nice guy, but not council material. He would be good on a few community boards.
I think Roger is the kind of guy who will be active in something if and only if he is in charge or can take a leadership role, which is not a good attribute for a councilman which is a slow-paced position. I think he and Barclay are similar in that regard - they'd rather make decisions on a bit faster of a pace.
Excuse me; Lets not forget how the SCCA is always under attack, hypocrites.
Roger got beat based on his color not his policies. Something that means zilch in that part of the city. Look no futher than DC. The proof is in the pudding.
The cards are stacked against white candidates. The DOJ configures boroughs to allow black candidates to be elected by predominately black constituents. Look how the Nansemond was bent and twisted time and again to be a black borough. It's not the case of the best man winning, in America today it's all about color.
So resign yourselves the best black Whalleyville candidate win and that will always be Milteer.
Johnson Mayoral Campaign raised well over $100K with the help of Democrat operatives and developers. Martin raised something like $47K in her run for council. Johnson's election fund is large and growing by the day. So Johnson will easily win re-election in 2012. The Dumaniacs must be scratching their heads, wondering why they voted for him?
Black leaders always fight for an all black borough yet they resent blacks being treated differently than whites. Maybe if they just were fair with shape of boroughs they would gain respect. If there ever were a case for lifting by bootstap it would be the blacks and it would do them good, give themselves respect for themselves.
I for one, would like to know what "Democrat Operatives" fueled Linda Johnson's mayoral campaign. From Richmond? From D.C.? What proof is that claim based on?
Linda used the same mail firm that Mike Duman and Jeff Gardy used - which is a Republican-leaning firm. And what does it matter anyway? These elections are supposed to be non-partisan. There is no "R" or "D" by their name in the voting booth.
Also, I don't think Martin spent $47,000 on her council race. The SNH reported it being about half that. The fact is that Duman has made a good name for himself through business over the years and that was a significant help in the campaign.
And yes, it is possible for a white person to win in the Whaleyville Borough. In 2008, a year that saw a large percentage of African-American turnout, Phyllis Byrum defeated Sharon Harris for School Board. Sharon was an incumbent of a couple terms, African-American, and well known in the black communities in the borough. Phyllis worked harder and won.
I think Roger lost because he was
nowhere to be found on the campaign trail. He didn't have many signs, did no mail, no website, and was not seen "pressing the flesh". He was not out at the Peanut Fest and didn't participate in the parade like Johnson and Nixon. Retail politics is how it's won. He just appeared at city council every other week and told them what they were doing wrong. Being seen as overly negative is a turnoff for many.
In closing, I would also like to know how my borough, the Nansemond Borough, has been twisted and turned over the years. On a map, it doesn't look twisted.
I think Mrs Martin should explain her contributions from Suffolk Redevelopment & Housing Authority
Section 8 landlords and even staff.
I know she has used up several hours of her 15 minutes of "fame," but this lapse in judgment should be explained.
I ran into Roger Leonard a few weeks ago and he has given up on changing anything in Suffolk. He has moved on and is now working for the federal government, I think he said something in Housing and Urban Development out of state. I agree that he was not willing to follow the herd, he wanted to lead, but how does anyone lead cats? Suffolk just has to many that hiss and spit if they don't get their way. Everyone has a strong opinion, but no one wants to get involved. When anyone steps forward to show how it can be better they get called a complainer, so we runn off talent as not belonging in Suffolk. Just no way to win in that environment. I have only met Mr Barclay once, but he seems like a smart guy like Roger and will most likley loose interest or at least try to move on to something better like a run against Quale. So we will end up with Mr. Milteer and his like and never see good talent in leadership roles. As a result Suffolk will never make it past being the backwater and bedroom community for Viginia Beach Norfolk and Chesapeake. Maybe that is what we deserve or what most want. I also agree that no one but a black candidate will ever win in Whaleyville Cypress or Nanemond for council, just will never happen and it was always planned that way.
As stated, in 2008, (a year with massive African American turnout), Phyllis Byrum defeated Sharon Harris for school board. This is still a small town; a strong retail politic and relations within the community can go a much longer way than "being a highly knowledgeable candidate". Many political campaigns have been decided on retail politics in this country.
Also, where is the vitriol against black candidates in the Chuckatuck borough and Suffolk borough? The Suffolk Borough is officially the city's tossup borough and every black candidate is defeated by wide margins. The Riverside and West End crowd will never allow an AA represent them. This is more amplified in the racist Ebenezer precinct and Northern stretches of Chuckatuck. Mary Hill has been trounced every cycle she has run
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